Posted 198 days ago

Anticipating New Global Challenges 2010 -2020

Tom Sine

As we race into this volatile new decade we are going to be faced with a host of new challenges, from escalating prices for oil to shortages of fresh water to remarkable new online technologies and dramatic increases in social networking.

In this first issue on Mustard Seed Imaginings, we will take a look at three major challenges that are likely to decisively change our world and impact all of our lives, communities and churches in 2010-2020:

Coming of climate change & impact on the global poor
Coming of a new multinational/multicultural future
Coming of a new millennial generation

Coming of climate change & impact on the global poor
Many working for a sustainable future were disappointed by the limited progress on climate change at Copenhagen in December. Few seem to realize that our poorest neighbors are already suffering much more than the rest of us from climate change. The Economist predicts that the global poor are likely to suffer a much greater share of the coming devastation, even though their footprint is much smaller than the foot print of those who live in developed nations.

Reportedly, from 1981 to 1985, fewer than 500 million people needed relief from natural disasters. In 2001 to 2005 that amount accelerated to 1.5 billion people. Tim Costello, CEO for World Vision Australia, told us that they are likely to need a stunning 4 to 5 fold increase in their funding for relief in poorer countries in 2010 to 2020.

We are also likely to see a huge rise in the number of environmental refugees in the coming decade as a result of rising sea levels and regional famines caused by flooding and droughts. Climate change is also likely to increase the spread of deadly diseases like Malaria.¹ One helpful resource is, “Global Future: A World Vision Journal of Human Development,” Number 3, 2009.

Opportunity for creating mustard seed possibilities-
Clearly mission organizations are going to need to very quickly re-imagine and re-invent how they do mission with the global poor. For example, we need to work with our neighbors in areas like Latin America that are likely to see rising temps to introduce new forms of agriculture. We will also need to imagine new ways to persuade churches to dramatically increase giving now to prepare for this emerging human environmental crisis. Most importantly, churches need to create new ways to educate their members on simplifying our lifestyles to free-up more to share with those in need while also reducing our foot prints. Imagine how God could use our mustard seeds to have huge impact on enabling our neighbors to deal with the devastating impact of growing climate change before it fully arrives.

Coming of a new multinational/ multicultural future
A second major challenge is the rapid emergence of the economies of China and India, followed closely by the economies of Brazil and Indonesia. This will create a major geo/political shift. In fact the US National Intelligence Council predicts that the emergence of China and India in the early 21st century could be equivalent to the emergence of America in the early 20th century.²

First, this will mean that the Atlantic axis of North America and Europe will no longer play an almost exclusive role in orchestrating the economic future of the planet. We are going to learn to share power and decision-making internationally in a way that few could have imagined at the beginning of the 21st century.

This global shift will raise a host of new challenges and questions for which we need to start finding answers right away. For example, will our young people in western countries be able to successfully compete for jobs in the global market place in engineering, business, law and medicine with the highly motivated young from India and China?

But even our western nations are becoming increasingly more multi-cultural societies. For example, the United States will become the first non-European western nation by about 2040. I find few leaders in our churches who are planning to embrace this rich opportunity.

The most rapidly growing churches in Britain, Australia, Canada and the United States are immigrant and ethnic churches. In the last 5 years in London, there have been more immigrant churches have started than new Starbucks shops. But 11 am Sunday morning is still the most segregated hour in the week in many of our western societies.

Opportunity for creating mustard seed possibilities-
This challenge is really an opportunity to reimagine and to re-invent where we live and how we educate our young. To prepare the young to live and serve God in this future, it only makes sense to explore raising them in multi-cultural communities, providing a broad range of experiences and early acquisition of languages from Mandarin to Portuguese .

In our churches we have the opportunity to discover how to become the family of God together across race, class and culture. We have the opportunity to lead this journey into a new majority future by creating new forms of collaboration with immigrant, ethnic and multi-cultural churches. We also have the opportunity to imagine new ways to participate in interfaith dialogues.

It is also essential that those of us from European cultures re-imagine how we do education in our seminaries, Christian colleges, mission organizations and churches, we must begin to listen to how God is speaking to the global church through voices from Latin, Asian and African cultures.

Coming of the millennial generation
Baby Boomers, born between 1946 and 1967, are 77 million strong and have been characterized as “a pig passing through a python.” This generation has had a huge influence in the decades of 60s, 70s, 80s and 90s in shaping the character of the larger society and impacting all of our communities and lives.

The Millennials, born 1978 to 2000, are over 90 million strong. They will become the new generation of influence and they are already impacting our lives and the larger society. For example, the last US presidential election was the first in which the 16 to 29 age group was drawn exclusively from the millennial generation. They voted overwhelmingly for Obama 66% to 32% and played a major role in deciding the outcome of the election.

By 2020 they will range in age from 20 to 42. They will also clearly reflect our new majority future. By that date over 44% of the Millennials will be Latino, African American and Asian, and they are likely to continue to be more politically progressive than older generations.³

Millennials also tend to be more idealistic, optimistic and have confidence in institutions including the government. Many of them have been raised in very affluent homes and will likely be the first generation not to exceed the lifestyles they were raised with. They are also being impacted more by the recession than other generations. As mentioned in the lead article, many of them will likely make less than their parent’s generation. It will be interesting to see how they weather these economic challenges and how well they are able to compete for jobs in the global market place with their peers in India and China.

What is clear is that this is a generation of activists who want to make a difference in their world. However, they are leaving the church at a rate we haven’t seen before. Ironically, many of them reflect a keen interest in spirituality, but it is often not the kind that is offered in many traditional churches.

Opportunity for creating mustard seed possibilities-
How can we prepare the young, many of whom are likely to have less income than older generations, to become more creative and responsible stewards of money and time…doing more with less? As I mention in The New Conspirators, this generation is not only more involved in activism but also highly innovative and great initiators. This is an opportunity for parents, educators, leaders in the church, and youth workers to do something we haven’t done very often: to invite imagination and initiative in creating new ways to make a difference locally and globally.

Millennials are often brilliant in using the internet, social networking, and the arts to express their strong concerns about everything from social justice to sustainability. If we are willing to collaborate with these imaginative and creative young women and men, I am confident we can create and give birth to new forms of church, advocacy and action. By sowing mustard seeds together in this way we will not only see many more of them stay with the church; they will help us re-invent it to better serve the growing needs that are likely to be a part of our turbulent tomorrow’s 2010-2020.

We invite you to join this conversation by sharing below:
1. Your mustard seed ideas of new of ways to respond to these new challenges in ways that reflect something of God’s purposes;
2. Your mustard seed innovations that you or your church have already started to address one of these new challenges of this new decade
3. Respond to our discussion of the future, the future of God or the need for creative new responses. We welcome your comments.

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[1] “A bad climate for development,” Economist, September 17, 2009.

[2] “Rising Powers: The Changing Geopolitical Landscape,” Report of the National Intelligence Council’s 2020 Project, www.dni.gov/NIC_globaltrends2020_s2html

[3]David Madlaand & Ruy Teixeria, “New Progressive America: The Millennial Generation,” Center for American Progress, May 13, 2009.

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